A panel of economists delivered their forecast Tuesday at the International Builders' Show in Las Vegas.

National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe says he expects home sales will weaken some after a homebuyer tax credit expires in April, but ultimately be up modestly for the year.

He also forecasts unemployment to peak at 10.2 percent before falling to around 8 percent by the end of 2011.

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft expects home prices to decline 3 percent this year. His forecast calls for mortgage rates to remain below 6 percent this year.

By ALEX VEIGA AP Real Estate Writer

Mortgage rates declined this week after a month of gains, with the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages retreating closer to 5%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of mortgage rates.

Current rates on fixed-rate mortgages are just about at their average levels for 2009, while adjustable-rate loans are considerably lower. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said he expects that to change. "As the economy strengthens further and the Federal Reserve decides to raise its overnight target rate, ARM rates will follow suit because they are typically tied to shorter-term interest rates," he noted.

The housing market recovery has been shaky. After plummeting during the recession, home prices began to rise in the summer as a tax credit for first-time home buyers spurred sales. Sales of newly built homes have been soft recently while existing-home sales have been strong. But earlier this week, the National Association of Realtors' index for November pending sales of previously owned homes plunged, largely reflecting a surge of home buyers in October racing to beat the expected deadline for the tax credit.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.09% for the week ended Thursday, down from last week's 5.14% average but up from 5.01% a year ago. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were 4.5%, down from 4.54% and 4.62%, respectively.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.44%, flat with the previous week and down from 5.49% a year earlier. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs were 4.31%, down from 4.33% and 4.95%, respectively.

To obtain the rates, the fixed-rate mortgages required payment of an average 0.7 point and the adjustable-rate mortgages required an average 0.6 point. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.

By JOAN E. SOLSMAN of The Wall Street Journal

There is no doubt that 2010 will a better year for the phoenix metro market though we will see more of the pain of 2009.  While our market differs from area to area there is one portion that has been a bright spot over the last six months.  The price points below 300K are moving very rapidly and we are seeing prices rebound in those areas.  Some areas have rebounded so fast that we are now again hearing talk of another so called bubble of artificial price increases.  The first time home buyer tax credit did create a lot of demand in those price points of our market.  The novelty of that credit is starting to where off though we are still seeing home sell very quickly and for more money than in past years. 

The upper end market will feel the pain this year!  The higher you go the worse the pain.  These markets have held on during the worst of times in 2008 and 2009 though I believe 2010 will be the year that there will be many more foreclosures and short sales in this portion of our market.  The problem there is that there is not the same volume of buyers for the upper end product especially in today’s economy / market.  You couple that will uncompetitive financing for a jumbo loan product and the outlook is not to pretty.  With that said it does provide a opportunistic market for owner occupants and long term investors.  You will not be able to build these homes for what they will sell for in 2010, and I am sure in 10 years we will all be saying I should have bought that house in 2010, rates were still low and we will never see those prices again.

For more information about the Arizona market please visit.  www.thekepplegroup.com or www.thekepplegroup.net

As an enticement to former renters to join the ranks of home ownership, the $8,000 credit has been widely considered a success. An estimated 1.4 million first-time home buyers across the country have grabbed the "freebie" this year. It also helped prop up underemployed real estate professionals.

The tax credit stimulus also helped the Florida housing market re­absorb tens of thousands of foreclosure homes that otherwise might have lingered on the multiple listing service for many moons to come.

The new bill includes an incentive for current home owners as well.  The government will offer those buyers a credit of up to $6,500 as long as they've lived in their home for five of the past eight years.

The credit can only be claimed on primary residences purchased for less than $800,000. And as long as they use the property as their primary residence for three or more years after the purchase, buyers don't have to pay it back. Furthermore, buyers can claim the credit on their 2009 taxes, even if the purchase was made in 2010 by filing an amended return.

Here's a quick recap of the extension's new guidelines:

• Buyers who have owned their current homes at least five years would be eligible, subject to income limits, for tax credits of up to $6,500.
• First-time home buyers — or people who haven't owned a home in the previous three years — could get up to $8,000. To qualify, buyers have to sign purchase agreements before May 1 and close before July 1.

Although some borrowers may be relieved and possibly saved from the foreclosure process it is important that we read the fine print; something American’s have been ignoring for quite sometime now. 

The new plan clearly states that a borrowers may qualify for a rate freeze if they adhere and pass certain guidelines and restrictions. 

Who Does Qualify?

1.     People who have not missed any mortgage payments with their introductory rate.

2.     Borrowers who took out a loan 2005 and July 31, 2007 and are scheduled for rate boosts between Jan. 1 2008 and July 31, 2010.

3.     Offer only applies to people living in their homes-----Investors NO!, Flippers, NO!

4.     Borrowers will need to document that they cannot handle a rate increase.  This means providing all income docs. 

Who Doesn’t Qualify?

1.     Borrowers who make enough money that could support a rate increase.

2.     Investment properties and Second Homes.

3.     Borrowers who went late on their mortgage before it adjusted.

There is no doubt that this will help many borrowers who are facing a rate jump that they simply can’t handle.   With that said, The Center for Responsible Lending, a group that promotes homeownership and works to curb predatory lending, estimates that only 145,000 households will qualify for the rate freeze. The criterion is too strict, the group says.  I guess only time will tell?  

Scott McGrane
Senior Mortgage Planner and Credit Specialist
First Choice Financial Services

This picture is one of the homes that has had a recent price reduction in Hughes Acres.  Click on the picture to see the property listing with more information! 

1717 E Wesleyan Dr

1701 E Wesleyan Dr

4009 S Parkside CIR

20 W Fairmont Dr        Active

209 E Erie Dr

838 W Santa Cruz DR   

10 W Geneva Dr

1024 W Hermosa Dr